By: Anum Ehsan
On August 26, a massive torrent of ice, rock, mud and debris tore through communities along the Nepal-Tibet border. By August 29, the disaster had killed at least 626 people in Nepal and seven in Tibet, while nearly 3,000 remained missing. Nepal estimated that reconstruction could cost between $4 billion and $5 billion. These figures were expected to rise as rescue teams reached areas cut off by destroyed roads and bridges.
Scientists are still investigating the precise sequence of events. Early evidence suggested that an ice-and-rock avalanche near Nepal’s Langtang Lirung peak crashed into a mountain river, triggering a powerful chain of floods and landslides. At least six hydropower plants were damaged, while river channels were altered more than 100 kilometres downstream.
It would be scientifically careless to attribute the disaster entirely to climate change before investigations are complete. However, researchers say rising temperatures are creating conditions that can destabilise mountain slopes. Melting ice, thawing permafrost and changes in rainfall and snowmelt can weaken the natural support that holds rocks and glaciers in place.
For Pakistan, this is not a distant Himalayan tragedy. It is a warning.
Pakistan and Nepal are part of the wider Hindu Kush Himalayan region, where glaciers are retreating at an alarming rate. According to the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), glaciers in the region disappeared 65 per cent faster between 2011 and 2020 than during the previous decade. Under current emissions pathways, they could lose up to 80 per cent of their present volume by the end of this century.
Communities in Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa already face threats from glacial lake outburst floods, landslides, cloudbursts and rapidly rising rivers. Pakistan’s 2022 floods demonstrated how quickly a natural hazard can become a national catastrophe. More than 1,730 people were killed, 33 million were affected, and damages and economic losses exceeded $30 billion, according to the World Bank-led assessment.
Such disasters are also deeply unequal in their impact. Women often lose livestock, agricultural income and homes while facing reduced access to healthcare, sanitation and safe shelter. Displacement can further expose women and girls to harassment and gender-based violence. Yet they are frequently excluded from disaster planning and local decision-making.
Pakistan needs more than relief delivered after disaster strikes. Glacial lakes and unstable slopes must be continuously monitored through satellites, sensors and community-based reporting. Hazard maps should guide construction, while settlements, roads, bridges and hydropower projects in high-risk valleys must undergo proper risk assessments.
Early-warning systems should reach women, remote households and people without smartphones through local sirens, radio, mosques and trained community networks. A warning is only effective if it reaches those at risk in time and in a form they can understand and act upon.
Nepal’s tragedy shows that climate adaptation is no longer a future policy option. Pakistan cannot prevent every avalanche or cloudburst, but stronger early-warning systems, safer infrastructure and inclusive planning can help prevent a natural hazard from becoming a mass-casualty disaster.
